Libya is like Tunisia and Egypt ?
In his excellent interview published a few days ago by Investig'Action, Mohamed Hassan asked the right question : "Libya : popular revolt, civil war or military aggression ?” . In light of recent researches, it is actually possible to answer all three. A spontaneous revolt, quickly recovered and transformed into a civil war (which had been prepared), served as a pretext for military aggression, which also had been prepared. Nothing falls from the sky in politics.
Let me explain...
In Tunisia and in Egypt, the popular revolt grew increasingly in a few weeks, organizing itself gradually and uniting on clear claims, which helped to expel the tyrants. But when analyzing the ultra-fast sequence of events in Benghazi, one is intrigued. February 15, demonstration by relatives of political prisoners during the rebellion of 2006. Event severely repressed, as has always been the case in Libya and other Arab countries. And just two days later, re-demonstration, but this time the demonstrators were armed and passed directly to the escalation against the regime of Gaddafi. In two days, a popular revolt becomes a civil war ! Quite spontaneously ?
To find out, we must examine what lies under the vague term "Libyan opposition". In our opinion, four components with very different interests :
1-A democratic opposition.
2-Dignitaries of Gaddafi "returned” by the West.
3-Libyan clans dissatisfied by the sharing of the wealth.
4-Fighters with Islamist trend.
Who made this "Libyan opposition" ?
In this tangle, it is important to know who are we dealing with. And most important, which faction was integrated in the strategies of the major powers :
1-Democratic Opposition.
It is legitimate to have claims against the Gaddafi regime, a dictatorial and corrupt one like other Arab regimes. The people has the right to want to replace an authoritarian regime by a more democratic system. However, these claims are far less organized and without specific program. Also Abroad, there are Libyan revolutionary movements, also quite disparate, but all opposed to foreign interference. For various reasons that we will clarify later, It is not these democratic elements that will have much to say today under the banner of the USA and France,
2-Dignitaries "returned"
In Benghazi, a "provisional government" was established and is led by Jalil Mustafa Abud. "This man was, until 21 February, Minister of Justice of Gaddafi. Two months earlier, Amnesty had placed him on the list of the most appalling responsibles for violations of human rights in North Africa” (10). It is this individual who, according to the Bulgarian authorities, had organized the torture of the Bulgarian nurses and the Palestinian doctor detained by the regime for a long time. Another "strong man" of this opposition is General Abdul Fatah Younis, former Minister of the interior of Gaddafi and former Chief of the political police.
Understandably, Massimo Introvigne, representing the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) for the fight against racism, xenophobia and discrimination, says that these characters "are not the 'sincere democrats' of Obama's speech, but among the worst instruments of the regime of Gaddafi, who aspire to drive Colonel to take his place."
3-Clans unhappy.
As pointed by Mohamed Hassan, the structure of Libya remained highly tribal. During the colonial period, under the regime of King Idris, the clans of the east dominated their oil wealth and advantage. After the 1969 revolution, Gadhafi has relied on the tribes of the west and east has been disadvantaged. It is regrettable, and a democratic government must ensure fairly fight discrimination between regions. One can also wonder whether the former colonial powers did not encourage dissatisfied tribes to undermine national unity. This is not the first time. Today, France and USA rely on the clans of the east to take control of the country. Divide and rule, the old classic of colonialism.
4-Elements of Al Qaeda.
Cables released by Wikileaks warned that eastern Libya was proportionally the largest exporter in the world of "fighters - martyrs" in Iraq. Reports from the Pentagon described an "alarming scenario" on the Lybian rebels of Benghazi and Derna. Derna, a town of barely 80,000 inhabitants would be the first source of jihadists in Iraq. Similarly, Vicent Cannistraro, former CIA chief in Libya, reports among the rebels a lot of "Islamic extremists who can create problems" and that "odds [are] high that the most dangerous individuals can have an influence If Gaddafi is expected to fall." (10).
Obviously, all this was written when Gaddafi was still "a friend". But it shows the complete lack of principles in the chief of the U.S. and its allies. When Gaddafi repressed the Islamist revolt in Benghazi in 2006, it was with the weapons and the West's support that he did it. So, sometimes they’re against the “ben laden’s” style fighters. And, some other times, they use them. One must know.
Among these various "opposition", which element will prevail ? It may also be a goal of the military intervention of Washington, Paris and London to ensure that "good" prevail ? Good from their point of view of course. Later, they’ll use the "Islamic threat" as the pretext to settle permanently
Anyway, one thing is certain : the Libyan scenario is different the Tunisian or Egyptian scenarios. Over there, there were "united people against a tyrant”. Here, with part of the population supporting Qaddafi, we are in a civil war. And in this civil war, the role played by U.S. and French secret services is no longer so secret…
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